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The estimate

Three sites, three numbers, one house. Here is why.

Automated estimates are models, not valuations. Knowing how they are built tells you when to trust the number, when to ignore it, and what it is actually good for.

The model

How an automated estimate is produced

An automated valuation model takes what is publicly recorded about your property, finds recent sales of properties it considers comparable, and adjusts for the differences. Land size, dwelling type, bedrooms and bathrooms, and the trend in your specific suburb all feed in. The output is a single figure, usually with a confidence indicator that most people never look at.

Two things follow from that. First, the estimate is only as good as the comparable sales available, so a quiet street in a quiet month produces a weaker estimate than a busy one. Second, the model can only see what has been recorded. Everything you have done to the property since it last changed hands is invisible until it sells again.

The spread

Why the numbers disagree

Each provider runs a different model over a different snapshot of the market. They weight comparables differently, they receive sales data at different times, and they make different assumptions about how fast a suburb is moving. Cotality publishes its Home Value Index monthly across Australian dwellings, and it is one input among several that these models draw on.1

So a spread between providers is expected. What matters is not which number is right, because none of them is a valuation, but whether they agree on direction. Three estimates that all moved up 6% over a year tell you something real even if they disagree by $60,000 on the level.

Where estimates are weakest

  1. Unusual properties. Acreage, heritage listings, waterfront, and anything with few genuine comparables nearby.
  2. Renovated homes. The model does not know about your kitchen. This is the single most common reason an estimate reads low.
  3. Thin markets. Small towns and small apartment blocks, where a handful of sales swing the whole estimate.
  4. Turning points. Models lag when the market changes direction, because they are fitted to sales that settled weeks or months ago.

1 Cotality, Home Value Index, July 2026 release, released 1 July 2026, reporting June 2026 data.

The three ways

Three ways to find what your property is worth

They cost different amounts, they take different lengths of time, and only one of them is binding. Choosing the wrong one for the question you are asking is the most common mistake here.

  1. An automated estimate. Free, instant, and produced by a model rather than a person. Good for tracking direction and for deciding whether a conversation is worth having. Carries no weight with a lender and is weakest exactly where your property is most unusual.
  2. An agent appraisal. Free, because it is a sales conversation. A local agent walks through, sees the renovation the model cannot, and gives you a range based on what is actually selling nearby. Useful and worth getting, with the obvious caveat that the person giving you the number would like to list your property.
  3. A formal valuation. Paid, performed by a licensed valuer, and the only one a lender will act on. Typically ordered by the lender rather than by you, as part of a loan application or a revaluation request. This is the number that decides your loan to value ratio in practice.

Which to use when

If you are asking whether to bother calling your lender, the automated estimate is enough and it is free. If you are preparing to sell, the appraisal is the one that reflects the property as it exists today. If you are refinancing or asking to be repriced, only the formal valuation counts, and it is worth knowing that a valuation coming in below expectations is the single most common way a plan that looked comfortable ends up above 80%.

What it is for

What the estimate is actually good for

Not for deciding your asking price, and not for anything a lender will act on. Lenders order their own valuation and lend against that. The estimate is good for exactly one thing, and it is a valuable one: telling you when a conversation is worth having.

Your loan to value ratio has your property's value as its denominator. Lenders mortgage insurance is generally payable when the amount borrowed exceeds 80% of the value of the property,2 and the sharper pricing tiers sit below that same line. If a rise in your area's values has quietly taken you from 84% to 78%, you are entitled to ask your lender to revalue and reprice, and nobody is going to tell you that has happened.

That is the whole use case. The estimate is a trigger, not an answer. It tells you when to ask for the valuation that counts.

2 Moneysmart (ASIC), lenders mortgage insurance (LMI), glossary, retrieved 28 July 2026.

Over time

One estimate is a number, a series is information

Checking once tells you very little, because you cannot tell a model's error from a real movement with a single reading. Checking the same address with the same provider over time is different: the errors are broadly consistent, so the changes between readings are meaningful even when the levels are not.

This is the part that is genuinely tedious to do by hand, and the part that decides whether the estimate is ever useful. The moment worth catching is a crossing, and crossings only exist in a series. Ratey tracks the value alongside your balance and re-runs your home loan health check every month, so the crossing arrives as a notification rather than as something you had to remember to look for.

Questions

Common questions

Why do property sites give different estimates for the same house?

Because each one runs its own model over its own data. Automated valuation models weigh recent comparable sales, land size, dwelling attributes and suburb trends differently, and they do not all see the same sales at the same time. A spread of five to ten per cent between providers on the same address is ordinary, not a sign that one is broken.

Will my bank lend against an online estimate?

No. Lenders order their own valuation, either a full inspection or a desktop assessment from a panel valuer, and lend against that figure. An online estimate is useful for knowing roughly where you stand and for deciding whether asking for a revaluation is worth it. It carries no weight in a credit decision.

How accurate are automated estimates?

Most accurate for ordinary houses in dense suburbs with plenty of recent comparable sales. Least accurate for anything unusual: acreage, heritage, waterfront, heavily renovated homes, or apartments in small blocks. If your property is unusual in any way, treat the estimate as a wide range rather than a number.

Does a renovation show up in the estimate?

Usually not, and this is the most common reason an estimate reads low. Automated models work from recorded attributes and sales, so a new kitchen, a second bathroom or a rebuilt extension is invisible to them until the property sells. If you have spent significantly on the place, expect the model to be behind.

How often should I check my property value?

Often enough to catch the crossings that matter, which in practice means a few times a year rather than daily. The figure only becomes actionable when it changes your loan to value ratio enough to move you into a better pricing tier or to make refinancing viable. Watching it more closely than that is entertainment.

Sources

Where these figures come from

CotalityHome Value Index, July 2026 release, released 1 July 2026, reporting June 2026 data.
Moneysmart (ASIC)loan to value ratio (LVR), glossary, retrieved 28 July 2026.
Moneysmart (ASIC)lenders mortgage insurance (LMI), glossary, retrieved 28 July 2026.

Market figures are point in time published figures, checked each time this page is reviewed.

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